Institut /
Ipsos
Mandatorn har jämfört 51 mätningar från Ipsos med opinionstrenden. Jämfört med trenden överskattar institutet Vänsterpartiet mest (+0,4 procentenheter i snitt) och underskattar Socialdemokraterna mest (−0,4 procentenheter). Inför valet 2026 låg institutets mätningar i snitt 1,05 procentenheter från resultatet, vilket ger vikten 1,24 i aggregeringen.
Vikt i aggregeringen
1,24
1,00 = genomsnittligt institut
Medelfel mot valet 2026
1,05 pe
4 mätningar de sista 90 dagarna
Mätningar i husbiasen
51
sedan augusti 2022
Husbias per parti
Hur institutets mätningar avvikit från Mandatorns trend samma dag. Positivt = institutet har mätt partiet högre än trenden. Relativt = avvikelsen i andel av partiets storlek.
| Parti | Mätningar | Över trenden | Under trenden | Medel (pe) | Median (pe) | Medel, relativt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Centerpartiet | 51 | 71 % | 29 % | +0,25 | +0,25 | +5,2 % |
| Kristdemokraterna | 51 | 47 % | 53 % | 0,00 | −0,04 | 0,0 % |
| Liberalerna | 51 | 43 % | 57 % | −0,04 | −0,13 | −1,2 % |
| Moderaterna | 51 | 43 % | 57 % | −0,10 | −0,15 | −0,6 % |
| Miljöpartiet | 51 | 51 % | 49 % | +0,04 | 0,00 | +0,8 % |
| Socialdemokraterna | 51 | 31 % | 69 % | −0,35 | −0,48 | −1,0 % |
| Sverigedemokraterna | 51 | 45 % | 55 % | +0,04 | −0,15 | +0,2 % |
| Vänsterpartiet | 51 | 73 % | 27 % | +0,41 | +0,39 | +5,2 % |
Senaste mätningarna
| Fältperiod | Urval | M | L | C | KD | S | V | MP | SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 – 2026-09-27 | 1 694 | 22,0 | 4,0 | 7,0 | 6,0 | 28,0 | 8,0 | 6,0 | 17,0 |
| 2026-09-07 – 2026-09-10 | 1 800 | 18,3 | 5,0 | 7,6 | 6,9 | 27,4 | 7,6 | 6,8 | 18,8 |
| 2026-08-25 – 2026-09-07 | 1 708 | 17,4 | 3,5 | 8,2 | 6,3 | 27,1 | 8,8 | 8,6 | 17,7 |
| 2026-08-11 – 2026-08-23 | 1 661 | 17,9 | 2,3 | 6,3 | 6,1 | 30,3 | 9,0 | 6,8 | 19,3 |
| 2026-06-02 – 2026-06-14 | 1 619 | 17,5 | 1,3 | 5,9 | 6,1 | 31,2 | 9,6 | 7,1 | 19,3 |
| 2026-05-12 – 2026-05-25 | 1 686 | 19,0 | 2,0 | 6,0 | 5,0 | 32,0 | 8,0 | 6,0 | 20,0 |
| 2026-04-14 – 2026-04-27 | 1 603 | 19,0 | 2,0 | 6,0 | 5,0 | 32,0 | 9,0 | 7,0 | 19,0 |
| 2026-03-10 – 2026-03-22 | 1 739 | 18,0 | 2,0 | 6,0 | 4,0 | 33,0 | 9,0 | 6,0 | 20,0 |
| 2026-02-10 – 2026-02-23 | 1 847 | 17,0 | 2,0 | 6,0 | 4,0 | 33,0 | 9,0 | 6,0 | 20,0 |
| 2026-01-20 – 2026-01-29 | 1 868 | 18,0 | 2,0 | 5,0 | 4,0 | 34,0 | 8,0 | 6,0 | 21,0 |
| 2025-12-02 – 2025-12-14 | 1 811 | 18,0 | 2,0 | 4,0 | 4,0 | 34,0 | 8,0 | 6,0 | 22,0 |
| 2025-11-04 – 2025-11-17 | 1 755 | 17,0 | 2,0 | 5,0 | 4,0 | 36,0 | 8,0 | 6,0 | 21,0 |
| 2025-10-07 – 2025-10-19 | 1 789 | 19,0 | 3,0 | 6,0 | 4,0 | 33,0 | 7,0 | 6,0 | 21,0 |
| 2025-09-09 – 2025-09-21 | 1 796 | 18,0 | 3,0 | 6,0 | 4,0 | 35,0 | 7,0 | 4,0 | 21,0 |
| 2025-08-12 – 2025-08-24 | 1 630 | 17,0 | 4,0 | 5,0 | 5,0 | 34,0 | 7,0 | 5,0 | 20,0 |
| 2025-06-03 – 2025-06-15 | 1 559 | 19,0 | 2,0 | 6,0 | 4,0 | 33,0 | 8,0 | 5,0 | 19,0 |
| 2025-05-06 – 2025-05-18 | 1 656 | 20,0 | 3,0 | 5,0 | 3,0 | 33,0 | 8,0 | 5,0 | 20,0 |
| 2025-04-08 – 2025-04-21 | 1 653 | 19,0 | 2,0 | 5,0 | 3,0 | 37,0 | 8,0 | 6,0 | 19,0 |
| 2025-03-04 – 2025-03-16 | – | 20,0 | 3,0 | 4,0 | 3,0 | 35,0 | 8,0 | 5,0 | 20,0 |
| 2025-02-04 – 2025-02-16 | – | 20,0 | 3,0 | 5,0 | 3,0 | 34,0 | 8,0 | 6,0 | 20,0 |